Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus probability shifts on market-moving events.
Prediction markets aggregate crowd wisdom into real-time probability estimates for future events. Fin45 monitors markets on Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus for contracts related to Fed decisions, elections, regulatory outcomes, and company-specific events.
When prediction market probabilities shift rapidly (e.g., a regulatory approval contract moves from 30% to 70%), it often precedes equity price moves in affected companies.
Fed rate decisions, drug approvals, merger completions, election outcomes, and regulatory actions — anything with clear equity market implications.
Research shows prediction markets are well-calibrated on average. Fin45 uses probability shifts (not absolute levels) as directional signals.
Fin45 publishes every trade 10 days after close. Subscribe to The Gap for daily signal summaries.
Subscribe Free →