Economic indicators that set the backdrop for every trade decision.
| Indicator | Value | Source | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | 5.25–5.50% | Federal Reserve | Last FOMC |
| CPI (YoY) | — | BLS | Monthly |
| Core PCE (YoY) | — | BEA | Monthly |
| 10Y Treasury | — | Treasury.gov | Daily |
| 2Y Treasury | — | Treasury.gov | Daily |
| 2s10s Spread | — | Calculated | Daily |
| VIX | — | CBOE | Real-time |
| Unemployment | — | BLS | Monthly |
| ISM Manufacturing | — | ISM | Monthly |
| Consumer Confidence | — | Conference Board | Monthly |
Live values populate after the experiment begins June 1, 2026. Data sourced from FRED, BLS, Treasury.gov, and CBOE.
Fin45's AI agent doesn't trade macro events directly. Instead, macroeconomic conditions calibrate the agent's overall risk posture: sector allocation, position sizing, and exposure limits all adjust based on the macro regime.
Three macro regimes are tracked: Risk-on (falling VIX, steepening yield curve, strong employment), Risk-off (rising VIX, inverting curve, weakening data), and Transition (mixed signals, tightening ranges). Each regime triggers different sector weightings and position limits.
An inverted 2s10s spread has preceded every US recession since 1970. Fin45 reduces equity exposure when inversion deepens.
VIX below 15: full position sizing. VIX 15–25: reduced sizing. VIX above 25: minimum exposure, wait for signal clarity.
Rate cut expectations (via Fed funds futures) shift sector weights toward growth and away from value/defensive.
Rising CPI/PCE favors energy and materials. Falling inflation favors tech and growth. Fin45 adjusts sector exposure accordingly.
Primary sources include FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics), BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Treasury.gov for yield data, and CBOE for volatility indices. All data is accessed via official APIs.
No. Fin45 reacts to released data rather than predicting it. The agent processes economic releases within seconds of publication and adjusts risk parameters accordingly. Prediction market data provides forward-looking probability estimates.
A steepening yield curve (long rates rising faster than short rates) historically favors financials and cyclicals. An inverting or inverted curve favors defensive sectors (utilities, staples, healthcare). Fin45 adjusts sector allocation weights based on curve shape.
When VIX exceeds 25 (elevated fear), Fin45 reduces all position sizes to minimum levels and requires higher conviction thresholds (0.85 vs. normal 0.75) for new trades. This prevents entering positions during dislocated markets.